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The decline of fertility rates on the other hand, – the number of children per woman – reduces population growth.
A set of influential projections is published by IIASA and the Wittgenstein Centre, which I refer to as the WC-IIASA projections.
Projections of the global population are uncertain and much of the uncertainty comes from the fact that we do not know which investments the world will make in those systems that determine mortality and fertility – most importantly in education, as we have just seen.
WC-IIASA breaks down the educational structure into the following 6 categories and the table summarizes how the six categories are defined, how they correspond to ISCED 1997, and the main allocation rules the researchers used.
For children younger than 15 years old no educational attainment information is available as most of them are still in the process of education.
, population growth has slowed considerably: The fastest world population growth rate was already reached in the late 1960s, and it has been falling since.
While the world population increased by 2% annually in the late 60s it has now slowed to an increase of just about 1%.Projections of the global population take into account how the fertility rate will change in each country over the coming decades.The WC-IIASA projections are particularly helpful for the discussion here as they are the only projections that break down the demographic projections by the educational level of the populations and then model how different educational scenarios would affect the fertility rate in countries across the world.The UN projections are called ‘assessments’ and a new update is published in their series every two years.The scenario which the UN researchers see as the most likely scenario is the Medium Variant projection.Since then the fertility rate has halved and is today below 2.5 children per woman.Fertility is driven by the socio-economic development of the population, especially the status and wellbeing of women.Then in the 1960s the fertility rate in the ‘less developed regions’ started to fall and another decade later the fertility rate in the ‘least developed regions’ followed this decline.The fertility rate of the world was still at 5 children per woman until the mid-1960s.Global population projections are also published by the US Census, the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), and by the closely related Austrian research centers IIASA and the Wittgenstein Centre.The World Bank also published projections for some time but has stopped doing so in the mid–90s.